News
May 25, 2018

Exit Polls Predict Overwhelming Repeal Victory

The Irish Times and the RTÉ exit polls predict an overwhelming majority of Irish people in favour of repeal.

Dominic McGrathEditor
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Dominic McGrath for The University Times

Ireland will vote overwhelmingly to repeal the eighth amendment, according to exit polls tonight from the Irish Times and RTÉ.

The Irish Times exit poll has the yes side on 68 per cent and the no side on 32 per cent.

The RTÉ exit poll has the yes vote on 69.4 per cent and the no vote on 30.6 per cent.

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After a day of voting that saw high turnouts in many areas, the two exit polls – conducted over the course of the day – suggests that Ireland has voted for liberalising an abortion law that is among the most restrictive in Europe. Young people, the Irish Times poll found, were enthusiastically in favour of repeal, with 87 per cent of those aged between 18 to 24 voting yes.

The RTÉ exit poll suggests that among the 18 to 24 age group, the yes vote was 87.6 per cent.

The Irish Times poll was conducted by Ipsos/MRBI among 4,000 respondents at 160 polling stations in every constituency.

The RTÉ exit poll was announced this evening on the Late Late Show. The poll, which was conducted by Behaviour and Attitudes, interviewed 3,800 people across the country.

Ahead of today’s vote, numerous polls had shown yes campaigners with a narrowing lead against the pro-life side.

If tonight’s exit polls are correct, Ireland will be on course to overturning a constitutional amendment that has been opposed by abortion rights campaigners for decades and will set the country on course for a new legislation that would widen access to abortion for Irish women.

Turnout today, many said, was higher than during the marriage equality referendum in 2015. However, the Together for Yes campaign expressed concern on social media this evening amid reports of a lower than expected turnout in Dublin.

Speaking earlier today, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, who is supporting a yes vote, said he was quietly confident that repeal would prevail. The Minister for Health, Simon Harris, whose strong performance in RTÉ’s Prime Time debate was praised by pro-choice campaigners, also spent today appealing to people to go out and vote to repeal the eighth amendment.

Activists on both sides spent the final hours of the campaign on the streets calling on people to vote. Student campaigners have been especially prominent on the streets of Dublin in recent days, with a rally in Trinity yesterday attracting a crowd of over 50 people.

Counting will begin tomorrow morning, with the final result expected Saturday afternoon.

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